Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 2.376937 2.527940 2.688204 2.871746 3.077122 3.301018 3.565164
2025-05-18 2.146108 2.350180 2.577899 2.853547 3.181960 3.565745 4.055980
2025-05-25 1.991924 2.223679 2.491110 2.827512 3.246890 3.763415 4.466444
2025-06-01 1.875034 2.123835 2.418403 2.800302 3.294205 3.929949 4.844834
2025-06-08 1.794393 2.058058 2.377269 2.802366 3.370835 4.133536 5.292684
2025-06-15 1.739076 2.017549 2.361705 2.831741 3.480911 4.388519 5.848051
2025-06-22 1.660666 1.942329 2.295608 2.787073 3.482327 4.485450 6.172457
2025-06-29 1.589574 1.872062 2.230875 2.738049 3.470821 4.558379 6.464851
2025-07-06 1.520069 1.800202 2.159677 2.674461 3.431373 4.581948 6.673035
2025-07-13 1.494132 1.783560 2.160436 2.710428 3.540214 4.847697 7.360953
2025-07-20 1.474272 1.773544 2.168893 2.756825 3.667402 5.157012 8.200517
2025-07-27 1.456187 1.764706 2.177909 2.803702 3.798264 5.488190 9.171290
2025-08-03 1.415580 1.724244 2.141613 2.781884 3.818416 5.629255 9.774974
2025-08-10 1.378819 1.687642 2.109070 2.763650 3.842697 5.780864 10.450120
2025-08-17 1.342661 1.650442 2.073876 2.738914 3.853295 5.906806 11.100715
2025-08-24 1.308566 1.614861 2.039411 2.713101 3.859439 6.024036 11.768468
2025-08-31 1.284608 1.592602 2.023272 2.715059 3.914054 6.246634 12.826517
2025-09-07 1.269307 1.581932 2.023509 2.742923 4.017088 6.586530 14.416019
2025-09-14 1.235866 1.544288 1.982129 2.700549 3.987047 6.630117 15.027247
2025-09-21 1.203023 1.506610 1.939447 2.654017 3.945882 6.643656 15.543297
2025-09-28 1.168081 1.465051 1.889685 2.593619 3.874540 6.579622 15.742510
2025-10-05 1.159187 1.460882 1.896298 2.627788 3.987226 6.966510 18.021014
2025-10-12 1.153112 1.460517 1.908516 2.671842 4.122996 7.436237 21.133025